January 9th, 2024 update
TNX is moving towards its next up half-cycle composite which is expected to arrive in early October, 2024. U-cluster decomposition reveals two very strong confirmations arriving in August-September, 2024.
Our geometric work shows that 2023 October high was not the top. It shows a higher target of 5.8 +/- 0.08. Once the top is in, TNX will decrease to its down half-cycle composite arriving in September, 2025. There is a very strong D-cluster confirmation coming in August, 2025. For the bottom, we have 2.7 +/- 0.1 projection.
Our mathematical and timing work for the 10-Year Treasury Index suggests the following.
- It is highly probable the first leg higher off of March 2020 low terminated on October 21st at 4.31%. Most of our price/time calculations look very good there.
- TNX should now correct. Assuming the top is indeed in our calculations yield two possible bottoms by early April of 2023. One located at 2.40% (+/- 25 bps) and the other one is located at 1.65% (+/- 25 bps). It appears, at this time, that 2.40% is a much better target. We will know with more certainty what this target is as we approach this powerful April’s 2023 TIME turning point.
- Once the bottom is put in place, TNX should turn around and surge much higher. The price of this post April 2023 top will be based on the above mentioned bottom and/or exactly where it occurs. Having said that, TNX should be well above 6% (at least) by the time Christmas of 2024 rolls around.
Fundamentally speaking, the above calculations are in line with our overall stock market analysis. As interest rates and the DXY fall, the US Stocks should rally into their final high by April of 2023. Then, something breaks and rates begin to surge while stocks collapse.
Associated charts below represent our analytical output.
