Copper (HG)
Date: November 29th,2022
Our mathematical and timing work for Copper (HG) suggests the following.
- We did see an important cyclical top in March of 2022 at $4.99. It appears Copper’s 14 year up cycle topped out at that juncture.
- The next important cyclical TIME turning of interest arrives in January of 2023. Yet, we have numerous powerful TIME cycle clusters hitting around March of 2023. Let’s say March 15th (+/- 10 trading days). These down cycle TIME turning points are one and the same. They will mark an important bottom in Copper, most likely in March of 2023.
- The TIME between major top cycle in March of 2022 and March of 2023 is rather short. Suggesting it will be a fast moving market. Thus far, it has been.
- Our PRICE calculations suggest two possible bottom areas, one located at around $2.40 (+/- 0.20) and the secondary one at $2.10 (+/- 0.10). It should become clearer which point it is as we get closer. Short-term work will be necessary to narrow all of the above down even more.
- Once the bottom is in, HG should bounce quite a bit.
The forecast above is also consistent with our overall stock market work. If you recall, something breaks in the second half of 2023 and the stock market dives, interest rates surge and so do the commodities (it appears).
Bitcoin (BTC)
Date: November 22nd, 2022
Thus far, our calculations have failed to produce any reasonable Time/Price targets for Bitcoin. This is not necessarily a surprise due to Bitcoin’s short trading history and excessive volatility.
Having said that, our TIMING variable for Bitcoin is yielding interesting results. It suggests Bitcoin will put in a major bottom at the end of 2023. Then stage what should be a significant rally into 2025. This is also consistent with our overall stock market forecast.
Shorter-term, it appears Bitcoin will soon stage a fairly good sized bounce into the middle of next year before falling into that final 2023 anticipated bottom.
It is likely we will be able to come up with reasonable Time/Price targets and better TIME turning points if we spend more time analyzing Bitcoin. And we will, as we get closer to that anticipated late 2023 bottom. It is at that bottom that serious money could be made. Particularly if Bitcoin repeats its last cyclical run as per our charts below.
10-Year Treasury Index (TNX)
Date: November 15th, 2022
***Quick Note: We found this analysis challenging as interest rates tend to distort the Time/Price calculations we use. We should have used some other associated index or an ETF, but we still believe the work below is quite accurate.
Our mathematical and timing work for the 10-Year Treasury Index suggests the following.
- It is highly probable the first leg higher off of March 2020 low terminated on October 21st at 4.31%. Most of our price/time calculations look very good there.
- TNX should now correct. Assuming the top is indeed in our calculations yield two possible bottoms by early April of 2023. One located at 2.40% (+/- 25 bps) and the other one is located at 1.65% (+/- 25 bps). It appears, at this time, that 2.40% is a much better target. We will know with more certainty what this target is as we approach this powerful April’s 2023 TIME turning point.
- Once the bottom is put in place, TNX should turn around and surge much higher. The price of this post April 2023 top will be based on the above mentioned bottom and/or where it occurs. Having said that, TNX should be well above 6% (at least) by the time Christmas of 2024 rolls around.
Fundamentally speaking, the above calculations are in line with our overall stock market analysis. As interest rates and the DXY fall, the US Stocks should rally into their final high by April of 2023. Then, something breaks and rates begin to surge while stocks collapse.
Associated charts below represent our analytical output.
The US Dollar (DXY)
Date: November 1st, 2022
Our mathematical and timing work for the US Dollar (DXY) suggests the following.
- There is a major UP cycle that arrives around February 1st, 2023 (+/- 2 trading weeks). We believe this cycle will mark an important mid-term top for the DXY. The cycle has a bit of variance associated with it, hence the +/- 2 week range.
- Our price completion points stands at $118.00 (+/- $2). This is in line with a double top (from 2001) expectation we have outlined previously.
- Once the top is put in place we expect the US Dollar to drop into May of 2024 and put in a major bottom there. Then stage a powerful rally into 2025. The extent of the drop into 2024 is debatable at this point. Some calculations suggests we drop into a 90 range once again, others suggest we go even lower. Before we can say where that bottom is with more certainty we first need to confirm the final price of the upcoming top in 2023.
More accurate time/price projections are possible for the above, but it would take more time. Since we are not trading the DXY at this time, the above should suffice.
Gold (GC)
Date: October 25th, 2022
Our mathematical and timing work for Gold (GC) suggests the following.
- Our timing work shows Gold will decline into about July of 2023.
- There are two possible bottom completion points. The most likely is located at $1,050 (+/- 25) and the secondary one at $1,450 (+/- 25). We will know which one it is once the TIME turning point arrives.
- Once Gold bottoms it should then rally into about January of 2025.
- Our upside target suggests Gold will see a top at around $2,500 by that juncture.
The above also makes sense in terms of our overall stock market forecast. Despite today’s elevated inflationary levels, a powerful rally in the market and rising interest rates should suck up capital away from Gold. Yet, once the deflationary spiral hits next year and they flood the market with capital again, Gold should rally.
Amazon (AMZN)
Date: October 18th, 2022
Anticipated moves for Amazon are more or less in line with expectations from the overall market. More so on the short-term basis as it can be interpreted that the bottom is already in as of June for Amazon or it can be interpreted the bottom will arrive shortly.
Our mathematical and timing work for Amazon (AMZN) suggests the following.
- One interpretation suggests Amazon bottomed on June 14th at around $101. The other interpretation suggests the stock will bottom this December 29th (+/- 5 trading days) at $82 (+/- $2)
- Once the bottom is in Amazon will run up to approximately $230 by the end of 2023.
Please note the following. Our overall market analysis suggests that there is an 80% chance the bottom is in as of last Thursday. And if so, it would confirm the fact that the bottom on AMZN has occurred in June. The only way Amazon gets to $82 going forward is if the “crash” scenario fires off over the next three weeks. With that said, all of the above doesn’t impact our upside projection.
Apple Inc (AAPL)
Date: October 11th, 2022
Our mathematical and timing work for Apple (AAPL) suggests the following…..
- AAPL should bottom around October 31st at $124 (+/- $2)
- Once the bottom is put in place, Apple stock should rally into April of 2023. Our calculations suggest Apple should reach $208 (+/- $2) by the end of April. I say should not in terms of PRICE, but in terms of TIME. If AAPL doesn’t reach this PRICE target by April, the TIME variable will extend and the stock will need more time to hit the same PRICE target.
Associated charts below represent this analysis. Please note, the analysis above is in line with what we anticipate from the overall stock market.
Crude Light Futures Analysis (CL)
Date: October 5th, 2022
Our Crude Light (CL) Mathematical & Timing Analysis suggests the following…..
- Our work suggests we will see a major bottom in oil in late January of 2023. This composite TIME frame is supported by an important cluster arriving at the same time. This time variable can be extended a bit further if Price/Time don’t line up by late January of 2023. This might explain a better line up with 2020 low. We just have to see where we are once we get to January.
- Our calculations suggest the bottom will arrive at around $72 (+/- $3). If the CL breaks below $69, which is possible, it would shift to a lower set of targets located at around $64.
- Once the bottom is put in place, the market should rally into its next projected top scheduled to arrive in October of 2024. Price variable suggests a top at $150 (+/- $5) at that time.
Associated charts below represent the above analysis.
