3/27/2024 – A mixed day with the Dow Jones up 47 points (+0.12%) and the Nasdaq down 20 points (-0.12%)
No changes to last night’s update. Today’s market action was also ideal and we are working under the presumption that the Dow will indeed put in a slightly higher high over the next few trading days to satisfy short-term calculations. Exact targets to come in our morning update, but the first target arrives at closing on Friday. In case no new high arrives, we will be ready to shift position once this week’s lows are taken out.
No other changes…..repeat.
Here is the setup we are looking at. At this point we are looking at a slightly higher high on the Dow on either Friday or early next week. Once our short-term targets are hit, a short position should be established. We will have those targets as soon as tomorrow.
If, however, the market doesn’t reach new all time highs and begins to sell-off, it would suggest that longer-term calculation as of March 21st were triggered and the top is in. In that case we will reverse into a short position once the Dow breaks below Tuesday’s low.
Overall, we have been discussing the following price targets for months, in case of the Dow for 18 months.
- SPX: March 25th (+/- 2 trading days), PRICE Target 5,200 (+/- 100 points).
- Dow: March 25th (+/- 2 trading days), PRICE Target 40,000 (+/- 500 points)
- NDX: March 25th (+/- 2 trading days), PRICE Target 18,300 (+/- 200 points)
Last Thursday’s top hit at 39,889 on the Dow could/should be considered as a perfect long-term mathematical hit . All other primary indices confirm as well.
With that in mind, only one component is missing from what would otherwise be a perfect hit. Our short-term work. Our short-term calculations suggest the market hasn’t completed its top formation just yet and will do so later this week or early next week.
In summary, ALL longer-term TIME/PRICE targets for the overall market have been satisfied. Yet, short-term calculations, which are typically more prone to error, suggest the market hasn’t topped just yet and will do so towards the end of this week. Having said that, if signs of a short-term breakdown occur over the next few trading days, we would have to dismiss our short-term calculations and assume the top is indeed in. Please stay tuned.
End Of Update ———–