4/3/2024 – A mixed day with the Dow Jones down 43 points (-0.11%) and the Nasdaq up 37 points (+0.23%)
Today’s market action was, more or less, neutral.
We do not yet have a technical setup in place to properly trigger secondary short entry point (the other 50%). The gap down from yesterday remains open and any bounce, thus far, has been insufficient. As a result, we remain in a waiting pattern.
Further, the longer we go on without putting in a new all time high, the higher the probability that the top is indeed in. The margin of error for this TIME window is closing fast.
Recall, we are operating under the presumption that the final major top is already in. We have taken a 50% short position in all portfolios and are now waiting for a technical confirmation before going 100% short.
If the market closes Tuesday’s gap down over the next few trading days and then reverses, we can use today’s low as a technical entry point. Otherwise, we remain in a waiting pattern as the market, while delivered a perfect hit on our proposed top, hasn’t confirmed anything yet.
Otherwise, please recall, thus far, all of our long-term targets have been hit perfectly. With short-term calculations exhibiting tiny signs of divergence.
- SPX: March 25th (+/- 2 trading days), PRICE Target 5,200 (+/- 100 points).
- Dow: March 25th (+/- 2 trading days), PRICE Target 40,000 (+/- 500 points)
- NDX: March 25th (+/- 2 trading days), PRICE Target 18,300 (+/- 200 points)
At this time we are assuming the top is indeed in. If we go a little bit higher over the next few trading days, so be it. This is a trading matter now.
In that regard, we have liquidated our 100% long-term (since October of 2022) and short-term (since November of 2023) long positions 15 minutes after opening today at 39,700. We took both portfolios (long-term and short-term) short at the same juncture. But only 50% of them as the overall hit wasn’t perfect. We will do the other 50% once the market gives us a technical confirmation over the next few days. Stay tuned for that.
Our stop loss is at 40,500 on the Dow
End of Update ——————