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Weekly Stock Market Update & Forecast: June 15th, 2024
A mixed week with the Dow Jones down 209 points (-0.53%) and the Nasdaq up 555 points (+ 3.23%)
We are witnessing yet another week of quite an extreme divergence between the Nasdaq and the Dow. To be precise, while the Dow is down about 100 points over the past two weeks, the Nasdaq has gained 953 points (+5.69%).
This is exactly what we were discussing in last week’s update. At the time we suggested the NDX/SPX were pushing at the margins of their prior April-May Time/Price junctures and if they were to increase 2%+ more during the week, they would jump to the next point of force.
And that is exactly what happened. Yet, by doing so I believe the overall stock market has clarified itself.
That is to say, the entire affair is turning into a complex market top formation. And while the Dow has topped perfectly in April-May, the NDX/SPX are still looking for their respective tops. We are nearly there.
Once again, in our prior weekly update we theorized that if the NDX/SPX were to push 2% higher during the week, they would shift gears into a slightly higher high as their completion points. At the same time, that would not necessarily mean the Dow would see a higher high as its April 1st and May 21st hits were perfect.
I believe we are dealing with this precise scenario.
Luckily, we have exact projections for both. Our calculations show the Nasdaq has a clear target at 18,250 (+/- 50 points) while the SPX has a bit more variable target at 5,600 (+/- 100 points). Both indices are now very close to their respective completion points.
The question is, when?
The next TIME turning point of interest arrives on June 17th (+/- 2 trading days). At appears, at least for the time being, the market might line up into this point. Having said that, if the indices correct over the next few days, avoiding this TIME/PRICE juncture, the next point will arrive in July. And if the latter is the case, we are in for a bit more of this mind numbing trading range – at least on the Dow/NYA/RUT.
Next week is important in terms of looking for any signs of the SPX/NDX top. As soon as the NDX/SPX complete their bullish patterns the market should reverse into a severe bear. With the Dow confirming first by breaking below April lows.
In summary, the market is putting in a complex top. While the Dow has achieved a perfect hit on its Time/Price projection, the NDX/SPX are still looking for their respective tops. Our new price projections for these indices suggest they are nearly there.
End of Update ————–