Updated Every Saturday by 8pm PST
Weekly Stock Market Update & Forecast: June 22nd, 2024
A positive week with the Dow Jones up 561 points (+1.45%) and the Nasdaq up 1 point (+0.00%)
The primary objective of this update is to determine whether or not we have seen the top this week on the SPX/NDX.
As you know, over the past few weeks we slightly adjusted our forecast to suggest while the Dow topped perfectly on April 1st and May 20th (double top formation), the NDX/SPX are still looking for their respective tops. Hence, this complex market top formation.
Since then, we have offered the following targeting. A more exact 18,250 (+/- 50 points) target on the Nasdaq and a more variable 5,600 (+/- 100 points) target on the SPX. With June 17th (+/- 2 trading days) being one of the likely TIME junctures.
On Thursday the SPX topped at 5,005 and the Nasdaq came close to 18K. In terms of SPX, that could be considered a perfect Time/Price hit. In terms of the Nasdaq, while the index definitely came within the margin of error, it did not reach its ideal target. Yet, as I have mentioned before, the Nasdaq tends to “misfire” more often than others.
What are we to make of all of this?
Well, let’s observe the market very closely going forward. If the NDX/SPX begin to sell-off in a structurally sound way, we would have to assume the top is indeed in. At that juncture we will be able to put in some trading triggers.
If, however, we continue to push higher, above this week’s highs on the NDX/SPX, we would have to assume the market is indeed looking for better targets within that 18,250 range on the Nasdaq. This would also suggest the TIME turning point has shifted to a TIME juncture arriving in July (more on that if this move develops).
Otherwise, everything else remains in force. Let’s very quickly review last week’s update……
That is to say, the entire affair is turning into a complex market top formation. And while the Dow has topped perfectly in April-May, the NDX/SPX are still looking for their respective tops. We are nearly there.
Once again, in our prior weekly update we theorized that if the NDX/SPX were to push 2% higher the week of June 10th, they would shift gears into a slightly higher high as their completion points. At the same time, that would not necessarily mean the Dow would see a higher high as its April 1st and May 21st hits were perfect.
I believe we are dealing with this precise scenario.
Luckily, we have exact projections for both. Our calculations show the Nasdaq has a clear target at 18,250 (+/- 50 points) while the SPX has a bit more variable target at 5,600 (+/- 100 points). Both indices are now very close to their respective completion points.
The question is, when?
The next TIME turning point of interest arrives on June 17th (+/- 2 trading days). At appears, at least for the time being, the market might line up into this point. Having said that, if the indices correct over the next few days, avoiding this TIME/PRICE juncture, the next point will arrive in July. And if the latter is the case, we are in for a bit more of this mind numbing trading range – at least on the Dow/NYA/RUT.
Next week is important in terms of looking for any signs of the SPX/NDX top. As soon as the NDX/SPX complete their bullish patterns the market should reverse into a severe bear. With the Dow confirming first by breaking below April lows.
In summary, the market is putting in a complex top. While the Dow has achieved a perfect hit on its Time/Price projection, the NDX/SPX are still looking for their respective tops. Our new price projections for these indices suggest they are nearly there.
End of Update ————–