6/24/2024 -A mixed day with the Dow Jones up 260 points (+0.67%) and the Nasdaq down 192 points (-1.09%)
As per our weekly update, the primary function of today’s analysis is to ascertain whether or not we have seen final tops on the NDX/SPX.
To review what was said in our weekly update…..
Our work suggests we have already seen the top on the Dow and we are now simply waiting for a complex top formation to complete on the NDX/SPX.
And while it is possible the top of this bull run is in as of last week for the NDX/SPX (30% probability), slightly higher highs are likely (70%) as per our previously discussed targets.
To be exact, let’s observe the market very closely going forward. If the NDX/SPX begin to sell-off in a structurally sound way, we would have to assume the top is indeed in. At that juncture we will be able to put in some trading triggers.
If, however, we continue to push higher, above this week’s highs on the NDX/SPX, we would have to assume the market is indeed looking for better targets within that 18,250 range on the Nasdaq. This would also suggest the TIME turning point has shifted to a TIME juncture arriving in July (more on that if this move develops).
Today’s market action doesn’t really clarify anything other than to say that thus far the sell-off has been structurally sounds. You can also argue that adds slightly to the probability of the tops being in. In reality, we have to give the market a little bit more time here.
Otherwise, everything else remains in force. Let’s very quickly our current setup……
That is to say, the entire affair is turning into a complex market top formation. And while the Dow has topped perfectly in April-May, the NDX/SPX are still looking for their respective tops. We are nearly there.
Once again, in our prior weekly update we theorized that if the NDX/SPX were to push 2% higher the week of June 10th, they would shift gears into a slightly higher high as their completion points. At the same time, that would not necessarily mean the Dow would see a higher high as its April 1st and May 21st hits were perfect.
I believe we are dealing with this precise scenario.
Luckily, we have exact projections for both. Our calculations show the Nasdaq has a clear target at 18,250 (+/- 50 points) while the SPX has a bit more variable target at 5,600 (+/- 100 points). Both indices are now very close to their respective completion points.
The question is, when?
The next TIME turning point of interest arrives on June 17th (+/- 2 trading days). At appears, at least for the time being, the market might line up into this point. Having said that, if the indices correct over the next few days, avoiding this TIME/PRICE juncture, the next point will arrive in July. And if the latter is the case, we are in for a bit more of this mind numbing trading range – at least on the Dow/NYA/RUT.
Next week is important in terms of looking for any signs of the SPX/NDX top. As soon as the NDX/SPX complete their bullish patterns the market should reverse into a severe bear. With the Dow confirming first by breaking below April lows.
In summary, the market is putting in a complex top. While the Dow has achieved a perfect hit on its Time/Price projection, the NDX/SPX are still looking for their respective tops. Our new price projections for these indices suggest they are nearly there.
End of Update ————–