7/2/2024 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 162 points (+0.41%) and the Nasdaq up 149 points (+0.84%)
Despite not seeing higher highs, today’s market action shifts our “new higher highs” case probability to nearly 100%.
If you would recall, over the past few days we have been discussing the fact that while the SPX has, thus far, delivered a perfect hit on its final target of 5,600 (+/- 100 points), the Nasdaq has missed its target of 18,250 (+/- 50 points) by a small margin. Although, the prior hit was within the margin of error.
We theorized over the past few trading days that the market would go ahead and put in that slightly higher high still. Moving our probabilities from 70%, to 80%, to now 95%. With July 19th (+/- 2 trading days) TIME juncture being the likely completion point.
Everything else, in terms of our overall forecast and today’s complex topping formation remains intact. Let’s review…….
The entire affair is turning into a complex market top formation. And while the Dow has topped perfectly in April-May, the NDX/SPX are still looking for their respective tops. We are nearly there.
Once again, in our prior weekly update we theorized that if the NDX/SPX were to push 2% higher the week of June 10th, they would shift gears into a slightly higher high as their completion points. At the same time, that would not necessarily mean the Dow would see a higher high as its April 1st and May 21st hits were perfect.
I believe we are dealing with this precise scenario.
Luckily, we have exact projections for both. Our calculations show the Nasdaq has a clear target at 18,250 (+/- 50 points) while the SPX has a bit more variable target at 5,600 (+/- 100 points). Both indices are now very close to their respective completion points.
The next few weeks are important in terms of looking for any signs of the SPX/NDX top. As soon as the NDX/SPX complete their bullish patterns the market should reverse into a severe bear. With the Dow confirming first by breaking below April lows.
In summary, the market is putting in a complex top. While the Dow has achieved a perfect hit on its Time/Price projection, the NDX/SPX are still looking for their respective tops. Our new price projections for these indices suggest they are nearly there.
End of Update ————–