7/3/2024 – A mixed day with the Dow Jones down 24 points (-0.06%) and the Nasdaq up 159 points (+0.88%)
Today’s market action was perfect if we consider our overall adjusted forecast. As of right now, all indices are within their respective final target ranges.
If you would recall, after the Nasdaq/SPX pushed above prior highs the week of June 10th, we had to slightly adjust our overall forecast. Stating at the time……
The entire affair is turning into a complex market top formation. And while the Dow has topped perfectly in April-May, the NDX/SPX are still looking for their respective tops. We are nearly there.
Luckily, we have exact projections for both. Our calculations show the Nasdaq has a clear target at 18,250 (+/- 50 points) while the SPX has a bit more variable target at 5,600 (+/- 100 points).
As of today we are hitting into this exact PRICE range, with the Nasdaq being just 12 points shy (well within the margin of error). In other words, all PRICE targets for the NDX/SPX have been satisfied and the Dow remains well below April/May highs. Again, thus far, perfection.
The only issue at this point is TIMING. Once again, if we consider the Dow alone, all time and price parameters have been perfectly satisfied. Yet, the NDX/SPX are a bit more tricky. Ideally, we have a TIME turning point attributed to these indices arriving around July 19th (+/- 2 trading days). A simple explanation would suggest the market might pull back or remain range bound into this date to satisfy all requirements.
Having said that, we should be on high alert going forward. Once again, for the Dow (our primary forecasting index), all time/price parameters have been perfectly satisfied. The NDX/SPX are secondary and in this particular case the PRICE variable is much more important. And that has been satisfied as well.
So, we have to observe the market very closely going forward. If the NDX/SPX begin to sell-off in a structurally sound way, we would have to assume the top is indeed in.
In summary, the market is putting in a complex top. While the Dow has achieved a perfect hit on its Time/Price projection, the NDX/SPX are still looking for their respective tops. Our new price projections for these indices suggest we have now reached our final PRICE targets.
End of Update ————–