7/10/2024 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 429 points (+1.09%) and the Nasdaq up 218 points (+1.18%)
In our morning update we issued the following new NDX top target.
After re-calculating the Nasdaq once again, we have come up with the following set of new upside targets.
- NDX 21,150 (+/- 100 points) – about 2% higher.
- QQQ 515 (+/- $3)
With July 19th (+/- 2 trading days) remaining as our proposed TIME turning point.
And while not a requirement, the above will likely push the SPX into the upper range of our 5,600 (+/- 100 points) target by the same TIME juncture. No changes to our DJX analysis and that apparent top being in. Hence, the divergences we are seeing.
Today’s market action tends to confirm this view. The rest of our forecast remains essentially the same as we wait for the SPX/NDX to complete their respective topping patterns.
If we could summarize our primary indices….
- The Dow (our primary analytical index): As of this writing the Dow has delivered a perfect hit on our top projection that we first identified as early as mid 2022. The double top formation we saw on April 1st and May 20th works. We have discussed this many times before.
- The S&P 500: As we have talked about over the past few weeks, after the SPX pushed above resistance the week of June 10th we had to adjust our forecast slightly and issue a higher set of targets for both the SPX/NDX. For the SPX this target was 5,600 (+/- 100 points). We are well within this range today and as indicated above, we are likely to see a hit at the upper edge of this range.
- The Nasdaq: New top formation targets have been issues at NDX 21,150 (+/- 100 points) and QQQ $515 (+/- $3)
What are we to make of this?
Well, our primary statement remains…..
That is to say, the entire affair is turning into a complex market top formation. And while the Dow has topped perfectly in April-May, the NDX/SPX are still looking for their respective tops. We are nearly there.
In summary, the market is putting in a complex top. And while the Dow has achieved a perfect hit on its Time/Price projection, the NDX/SPX are still looking for their respective tops. Our new price projections for these indices suggest they are nearly there and we are now on a lookout for a structurally sound sell-off that would confirm the tops are indeed in.
End of Update ————–