7/16/2024 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 742 points (+1.85%) and the Nasdaq up 36 points (+0.64%)
Today’s substantial rally on the Dow Jones, right into our upper range of the 40,500 (+/- 500 points) point of force, extremely complicates the analysis.
Let me put it this way. The stock market either begins to fail here and now -OR- the overall analysis will shift to the next long-term point of force located slightly above 42K. Likely to arrive in the Oct-Nov time frame.
Oddly enough, now the SPX/NDX are not confirming this upper range. Both are sitting at their updated completion points and at significant resistance. Plus, at a very good TIME turning point of July 19th (+/- 2 trading days). Yes, slightly higher highs are possible, even probable at NDX = 21,150 (+/- 100 points) and SPX 5700 +/-. But that would suggest the Dow would push above its final resistance, suggesting higher time/price targets mentioned above.
In other words, it’s an analytical mess.
According to our calculations if the Dow is able to push above 41,250 it would negate any margin of error and would suggest it is going into the next point of force scheduled to arrive in Oct-Nov at above 42K.
Yet, the SPX/NDX are saying they are ready to start breaking down at any time now.
How do we approach this ?
Well, let’s for a second assume that as of this writing the Dow hasn’t violated anything and the NDX/SPX are exactly where they are supposed to be. In terms of being at their respective tops. With our July 19th TIME turning point arriving as soon as tomorrow. If the market begins to fail now in a structurally sound way, the top is indeed in and all indices simply pushed to their breaking point.
If, however, the Dow is able to push above 41,250, I believe it would negate our prior point of force and the market would shift gears into Oct-Nov time frame as its final top. I am not sure what to suggest at this time in terms of the NDX/SPX, but the Dow would push above 42K. Perhaps it will be a range bound market with quite a few divergences.
That is why this entire setup is quite messy and complicated.
This is as equally difficult from a trading perspective. Any further highs, if they occur, should be marginal at best. Yet, there is a real possibility of a breakdown. Particularly on the NDX/SPX as we are dealing at the blow off top and we are sitting at a completion point.
What are we to do?
We are still trying to figure this out. First, we are increasing our Stop Loss on the Dow (our previously established short position) to 41,500 to make sure we are not taken out right at the top. To make sure the Dow actually breaks above its margin of error and pushes to the next point of force.
Further, we are running additional calculations on all other indices in an attempt to clarify all of the above. I hope to have this information for you as soon as tomorrow.
Finally, the above doesn’t change our overall forecast of a severe bear market ahead. It simply brings into question the final time/price top location. And we will see it either now or later in the year.
In summary, the market is putting in a complex top. Now all indices are looking for their respective tops. Our new price projections for these indices suggest they are nearly there and we are now on the lookout for a structurally sound sell-off that would confirm that the top is indeed in. Once the tops are in the market will begin a severe bear move.
End of Update ————–