7/18/2024 – A negative day with the Dow Jones down 533 points (-1.29%) and the Nasdaq down 125 points (-0.70%)
If we are to consider today’s market action, we can definitely claim that July 19th (+/- 2 trading days) TIME turning point has been triggered. Last Thursday on the NDX, on Tuesday on the SPX and today on the Dow. With the SPX/NDX delivering a very accurate hit on our previously discussed adjusted targets and with the Dow stretching its margin of error range to the max.
And if so, the tops are in and we are indeed beginning our bear market now.
As much as I would like this to be the case, I have a number of issues with this conclusion. Chief among them is the fact that the Dow pushed just outside its margin of error, suggesting a higher target at a later date (October).
Can today’s top work?
Sure, but I would put that probability at 25%. Just as importantly, both the SPX/NDX left behind substantial gap downs off of their tops. Suggesting the market will come back and put in slightly higher highs.
To conclude all of the above while considering every aspect of previously discussed “messy” setup…. I would put the probability of the top being in at 20-25%, while assign a probability of 75% that it is not.
At this point we have to let the market develop over the next few trading days. If the probability will begin to shift towards the top being in, we will begin looking for additional entry points on the short side. As it stands now, it might be a bit early.
No other changes to our prior weekly, daily and Intraday updates describing the complexities associated with today’s top forming setup.
In summary, the market is putting in a complex top. Now all indices are looking for their respective tops. Our new price projections for these indices suggest they are nearly there and we are now on the lookout for a structurally sound sell-off that would confirm that the top is indeed in. Once the tops are in the market will begin a severe bear move.
End of Update ————–