CarMax Inc. (KMX)
Date of Analysis: October 8, 2025
Overview
CarMax (KMX) has entered our radar as both a Super Equity and a Fast Mover candidate. While this analysis may be slightly premature, the stock has already experienced a sharp decline, prompting us to begin preliminary bottom identification. Based on our time/price cycle composites, we anticipate a significant long-term accumulation opportunity developing in the second half of 2026, likely coinciding with a broader market bottom.
Time Analysis
Our cycle composite currently projects a major bottom in March 2026, with an extension window that aligns with the third to fourth quarter of 2026—the same timeframe we expect for the overall market low.
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Primary Cycle Bottom: March 2026 (± 1 month)
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Extended Cycle Cluster: Q3–Q4 2026
A minor time cluster is also visible in October 2025, which may trigger a temporary bounce before the stock resumes its decline into the major cycle low. Accordingly, our focus will intensify in Q2 2026 (March–May) to monitor for technical and geometric confirmation of the final bottom.
Price Analysis
Our geometric and projection models currently indicate a bottoming range between $25 and $30 per share, with the most probable target centered around $27.50 ± $2.50. As we approach the next major time cluster, we will refine this range further to pinpoint the precise price-time intersection.
Once the time and price convergence occurs, the resulting turning point will represent a major long-term cycle low — setting the stage for a powerful multi-year uptrend.
Forward Projections
Following the 2026 bottom, we anticipate:
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Fast Move Phase: An initial rebound lasting 3–6 months, likely propelling the stock into a mid-cycle top.
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Primary Bull Phase: A sustained advance extending into 2028–2029, culminating in a major cycle top.
Our long-term projections estimate a price target near $250 per share, representing an approximate 8–10X increase from projected 2026 lows — consistent with our classification of KMX as a Super Equity candidate.
Conclusion
KMX presents a compelling long-term opportunity, with a projected major cyclical bottom in 2026 and a subsequent potential for exponential price appreciation through 2029. The stock should remain on high alert status for accumulation signals emerging in Q2 2026, particularly as it approaches the $27.50 ± $2.50 target range.
