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Crude Light Futures (CL) – Mid-Cycle Ambiguity, Major Bottom Targeted for 2026

Date: December 9, 2025
TPO Analytical Summary

Executive Overview

Crude Light Futures continue to broadly track our prior cycle framework, though recent price action has introduced short-term ambiguity. The April 2025 low at $55.12 marked a confirmed bottom, as projected. However, the anticipated mid-cycle top in November 2025 failed to fully materialize at the expected price levels, leaving two viable near-term scenarios in play. Despite this uncertainty, the primary long-term outlook remains unchanged: crude is still projected to decline into a major cycle bottom in November 2026, followed by a substantial multi-year advance.

Cycle Structure & Timing

  • Confirmed Bottom: April 2025 at $55.12

  • Intended Mid-Cycle Top: November 15, 2025 (price target not achieved)

  • Next Major Cycle Bottom: November 2026

  • Next Major Cycle Top: March 2029

Once the 2026 bottom is established, crude is expected to enter its primary advance phase into the 2029 major cycle top.

Two Near-Term Scenarios

  1. Failed Mid-Cycle Top (Primary Path):
    The November 2025 top failed to fully develop, and crude is already in decline toward the November 2026 major bottom.

  2. Delayed Top via Geopolitical Catalyst:
    The mid-cycle top window may still be active. A geopolitical shock—particularly around the December 13 time turning point—could trigger a sharp upside spike, potentially lifting crude toward $100 per barrel or higher, before reversing lower into the 2026 bottom.

While both scenarios are viable, the dominant structural outcome remains a decline into late 2026.

Downside Price Targets

Assuming the primary decline scenario unfolds, current modeling identifies several downside objectives, with the highest-probability target as follows:

  • Primary Bottom Target: $24 ± $2 (November 2026)

While this level appears extreme, it is supported by the current long-term time-price composites. As price action develops over the coming months—and as the short-term scenario resolves—we will refine this projection with greater precision.

Conclusion

Crude Light Futures are at an important juncture, with short-term direction contingent on whether a delayed geopolitical-driven top emerges. Regardless of near-term volatility, the dominant cycle structure continues to point toward a major bottom in November 2026, potentially near $24, followed by a powerful advance into the March 2029 major cycle top. This post-2026 phase represents the primary opportunity of interest within the current long-term framework.

Crude Light Futures (CL)
Date of Update: June 24th, 2025

Based on our quantitative models and timing methodologies, we anticipate the following developments in Crude Light.

  • Our additional calculations suggest that a short-term bottomed might have already occurred at $55.12 in early April.
  • This view is currently being confirmed by a cycle shift associated with the next mid-cycle top and bottom.
  • Our calculations now suggest we will see a mid-cycle top next around November 15th of 2025 (+/- 15 trading days). Followed by a mid-cycle bottom in late 2026.
  • We have two important PRICE regions associated with the above TIME projections. One is located between $90-$100. If CL is able to break above $103, it will then go to at least $160.  Considering today’s geopolitical situation, that is a real possibility.

In summary, we likely saw the bottom in oil at $55 in early April. The next mid-cycle top suggests we will see an important top around November of 2025 at the two potential PRICE regions specified above. Considering today’s geopolitical situation, this is a distinct possibility.

Trading: While we wouldn’t be interested in trading CL at this time, current setup warrants a technical entry. If CL is able to break below $55, no position should be taken. Yet, if CL is able to push above $80, it would confirm the forecast above.  At that time the probability of it running up to $160 or higher would increase drastically. Trade accordingly.

Crude Light Futures (CL)
Date Of Update: April 9th, 2025

Our updated analysis of CL suggests the following:

    • Our bottom price target has been changed. We have a strong confirmation that the completion point of the current sell-off is located around $40 (+/- $5) and we put a firm stop loss at $32. Lower prices are possible, but highly unlikely at this juncture.
    • Our prior projection of $155 for the next-coming top remains in force. We identified a powerful long-term X-cycle arriving in November 2025. We believe that this is where the real top will arrive.

In summary, we see $40 +/- $5 as the completion point of the current sell-off in CL. Our stop loss is $32. The top PRICE projection from our prior update remains in force, but the TIME component is more likely to arrive in November 2025.

Date Of Update: November 13th, 2024

Our updated analysis of CL suggests a new time-decomposition of CL into up and down cycle composites. In particular:

  • A powerful mid-cycle up composite arrives in September 2025. Note that our prior price projection of $155 +/- $5 remains in force for the top.
  • Mid-cycle down composite will arrive in November 2026.
  • Currently, CL is still at the same energy level as was its 2023 May low. We will put a stop loss at $61. Note that if CL breaks below our stop loss, it can go as low as $40.

In summary, our prior projection of $155 has been shifted to September of 2025 (+/- variance), after which CL will start to sell off to November 2026 where we anticipate a mid-cycle down composite.

Date Of Update: May 7th, 2024

Our mathematical and timing calculations for Crude Light Futures suggest the following…..

      • As per our initial analysis, Crude Light should place a top in early January of 2025 (+/- associated variance).
      • Our calculations suggest the top will arrive at $155 (+/- $5). If CL is able to break above $165 it can easily go as high as $225

In summary, Crude Light will reach the vicinity of $155 by early January of 2025 (+/- variance).

Date Of Analysis: November 7th, 2023

Our mathematical and timing calculations for Crude Light Futures suggest the following…..

      • Just as our October of 2022 report (see below) projected, CL bottomed at our last target of $64 in early May. In other words, our mathematical and timing calculations confirm May’s bottom as a longer-term bottom.
      • Crude Light should now increase into the end of 2024 with a top arriving in either November of 2024 or January of 2025. It will become clearer which TIME juncture as we get closer.
      • Our calculations suggest the top will arrive at $155 (+/- $5). If CL is able to break above $165 it can easily go as high as $225

In summary, Crude Light did put in a major bottom in May of 2023 at $64 and is now increasing into its next top, scheduled to arrive at the end of 2024 at around $155.

Crude Light Futures Analysis (CL)
Date: October 5th, 2022

Our Crude Light (CL) Mathematical & Timing Analysis suggests the following….. 

  • Our work suggests we will see a major bottom in oil in late January of 2023. This composite TIME frame is supported by an important cluster arriving at the same time. This time variable can be extended a bit further if Price/Time don’t line up by late January of 2023. This might explain a better line up with 2020 low. We just have to see where we are once we get to January.
  • Our calculations suggest the bottom will arrive at around $72 (+/- $3). If the CL breaks below $69, which is possible, it would shift to a lower set of targets located at around $64.
  • Once the bottom is put in place, the market should rally into its next projected top scheduled to arrive in October of 2024. Price variable suggests a top at $150 (+/- $5) at that time.

Associated charts below represent the above analysis.