Daily Stock Market Update & Forecast, April 1st, 2024 – 159

4/1/2024 – A mixed day with the Dow Jones down 240 points (-0.60%) and the Nasdaq up 17 points (+0.11%) 

Is the top in?

That is quite possibly the case as we are operating at the margins on everything.

For instance, while the Dow missed putting in the final top at opening by a little bit, SPX missed the same by less than a point. Then we have the Dow Futures ……. they did hit perfectly in the pre-market.

Point being, since the hit wasn’t “perfect” and since we are still operating within the margin of error, even for our short-term calculations, we can easily argue back and forth for either case.

Please recall, thus far, all of our long-term targets have been hit perfectly. With short-term calculations exhibiting tiny signs of divergence.

  • SPX: March 25th (+/- 2 trading days), PRICE Target 5,200 (+/- 100 points).
  • Dow: March 25th (+/- 2 trading days),  PRICE Target 40,000 (+/-  500 points)
  • NDX: March 25th (+/- 2 trading days), PRICE Target 18,300 (+/- 200 points)

At this time I will assume the top is indeed in. If we go a little bit higher over the next few trading days, so be it. This is a trading matter now.

In that regard, we have liquidated our 100% long-term (since October of 2022) and short-term (since November of 2023) long positions 15 minutes after opening today at  39,700. We took both portfolios (long-term and short-term) short at the same juncture. But only 50% of them as the overall hit wasn’t perfect.  We will do the other 50% once the market gives us a technical confirmation over the next few days. Stay tuned for that.

Our stop loss is at 40,500 on the Dow

End of Update ——————