4/25/2024 – A negative day with the Dow Jones down 375 points (-0.98%) and the Nasdaq down 100 points (-0.64%)
More of the same from the stock market for the time being. We had a substantial gap down in the morning, followed by its partial closure.
Our forecast remains the same. Our major top is in, but the market likely needs additional time to resolve some of the structural issues it has left behind. Particularly, a number of down gaps we have seen recently. Including today’s.
Further, as we have mentioned on Wednesday, last week’s lows on the Dow make no mathematical or timing sense. Meaning, the market will soon take them out. It is unclear at this time if all indices will be able to fill their respective gaps before further downside is anticipated, but that is definitely a possibility.
Otherwise, no changes.
Longer-term, for months, and in the case of the Dow Jones, for 18 months, we have maintained the following price targets.
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- SPX: March 25th (+/- 2 trading days), PRICE Target 5,200 (+/- 100 points).
- Dow: March 25th (+/- 2 trading days), PRICE Target 40,000 (+/- 500 points)
- NDX: March 25th (+/- 2 trading days), PRICE Target 18,300 (+/- 200 points)
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Over the past few weeks we have been discussing the fact that while the long-term calculations completed in late March (ex. March 21st on the NDX), short-term calculations at the time indicated the market would complete around April 1st.
On March 30th we issued the following short-term update (see last week’s update).
We believe we might see the final top on the Dow Jones in the first 60 minutes of trading on Monday (April 1st). Please check our Intraday update on Monday as we might reverse position from long to short at that juncture.
Once the market opened that Monday, it proceeded to sell-off nearly immediately. The Dow missed an all time high by a few points, while the SPX did so by a fraction of a point. Yet, as was discussed previously, the Dow Futures did hit an all time high in the pre-market. All in all, the hit was not perfect, but sufficient enough to suggest the top was indeed in.
As a result, we liquidated our prior long-term and short-term 100% long positions at the time (15 minutes after opening) and went short 50% (long/short term) at 39,700 and equivalent on the Dow.
We then discussed various short-term divergences and suggested that we would take the other 50% short position when the market gives us a technical confirmation. As was discussed throughout the week, this confirmation arrived on Thursday and we were triggered into the rest of our short position at 38,950.
End of Update ————