4/2/2024 – A negative day with the Dow Jones down 396 points (-1.00%) and the Nasdaq down 156 points (-0.95%)
Today’s market action was both good and bad.
It was not ideal from the sense of today’s significant gap down that the market will have to close. Having said that, this can work to our advantage.
Recall, we are operating under the presumption that the final major top is already in. We have taken a 50% short position in all portfolios and are now waiting for a technical confirmation before going 100% short.
Today’s gap down suggests we will soon get this confirmation. If the market closes this gap over the next few trading days and then reverses, we can use today’s low as a technical entry point. Otherwise, we remain in a waiting pattern as the market, while delivered a perfect hit on our proposed top, hasn’t confirmed anything yet.
Otherwise, please recall, thus far, all of our long-term targets have been hit perfectly. With short-term calculations exhibiting tiny signs of divergence.
- SPX: March 25th (+/- 2 trading days), PRICE Target 5,200 (+/- 100 points).
- Dow: March 25th (+/- 2 trading days), PRICE Target 40,000 (+/- 500 points)
- NDX: March 25th (+/- 2 trading days), PRICE Target 18,300 (+/- 200 points)
At this time we are assuming the top is indeed in. If we go a little bit higher over the next few trading days, so be it. This is a trading matter now.
In that regard, we have liquidated our 100% long-term (since October of 2022) and short-term (since November of 2023) long positions 15 minutes after opening today at 39,700. We took both portfolios (long-term and short-term) short at the same juncture. But only 50% of them as the overall hit wasn’t perfect. We will do the other 50% once the market gives us a technical confirmation over the next few days. Stay tuned for that.
Our stop loss is at 40,500 on the Dow
End of Update ——————