7/11/2024 – A mixed day with the Dow Jones up 32 points (+0.08%) and the Nasdaq down 364 points (-1.95%)
The primary question we have today is whether or not we have finally seen the top on the SPX/NDX?
Considering today’s market action, that is a real possibility.
Today’s sell-off was sizeable, particularly on the Nasdaq, and structurally sound. The SPX has delivered a perfect hit within its 5,600 (+/- 100 point) range. The NDX did not hit its updated range of 21,150 (+/- 100 points), but we are close. July 19th (+/- 2 trading days) TIME turning point range is only three trading days away.
In other words, while the updated NDX/TIME hit was not ideal, it is definitely within the margin of error. And considering the extent of today’s sell-off, we must consider the fact that the top is indeed in. We are now looking for confirmations.
If we begin to get them over the next few trading days, we will begin looking for good technical entry points. Otherwise, we would have to assume the Nasdaq has to push a little bit higher and into our target of 21,150 (+/- 100 points).
The rest of our forecast remains the same.
If we could summarize our primary indices….
- The Dow (our primary analytical index): As of this writing the Dow has delivered a perfect hit on our top projection that we first identified as early as mid 2022. The double top formation we saw on April 1st and May 20th works. We have discussed this many times before.
- The S&P 500: As we have talked about over the past few weeks, after the SPX pushed above resistance the week of June 10th we had to adjust our forecast slightly and issue a higher set of targets for both the SPX/NDX. For the SPX this target was 5,600 (+/- 100 points). We are well within this range today and as indicated above, we are likely to see a hit at the upper edge of this range.
- The Nasdaq: New top formation targets have been issues at NDX 21,150 (+/- 100 points) and QQQ $515 (+/- $3)
Our primary statement remains…..
That is to say, the entire affair is turning into a complex market top formation. And while the Dow has topped perfectly in April-May, the NDX/SPX are still looking for their respective tops. We are nearly there.
In summary, the market is putting in a complex top. And while the Dow has achieved a perfect hit on its Time/Price projection, the NDX/SPX are still looking for their respective tops. Our new price projections for these indices suggest they are nearly there and we are now on a lookout for a structurally sound sell-off that would confirm the tops are indeed in.
End of Update ————–