6/12/2024 – Another mixed day with the Dow Jones down 35 points (-0.09%) and the Nasdaq up 264 points (+1.53%)
I believe today’s market action clarifies the conundrum we have been discussing over the past few weeks. The divergence between the Dow and the SPX/NDX.
In our weekly update we theorized that if the NDX/SPX push 2% higher during the week, they would shift gears into a slightly higher high as their completion points. Yet, that would not necessarily mean the Dow would see a higher high as its April 1st and May 21st hits are perfect.
I believe we are dealing with exactly this scenario. This is common for market tops as major market tops tend to be complex. Yes, sometimes they are indeed easy as was the case with October of 2007, but at times they diverge significantly. If I remember correctly, speaking from memory here, in 2000 the Dow topped in January, the Nasdaq in March and the SPX in September.
So, as a result, our overall forecast is shifting gears a little bit. While the Dow achieved a perfect hit on its Time/Price target, the SPX/NDX are still looking for their completion points.
Luckily, we have exact projections for both. Our calculations show the Nasdaq has a clear target at 18,250 (+/- 50 points) while the SPX is a bit more variable at 5,600 (+/- 100 points). Both indices are now very close to these completion points.
The question is, when?
The next TIME turning point of interest arrives on June 17th (+/- 2 trading days). At appears, at least for the time being, the market might line up into this point. Having said that, if the indices correct over the next few days, avoiding this TIME/PRICE juncture, the next point will arrive in July. And if the latter is the case, we are in for a bit more of this mind numbing trading range – at least on the Dow/NYA/RUT.
In summary, the market is putting in a complex top. While the Dow has achieved a perfect hit on its Time/Price projection, the NDX/SPX are still looking for their respective tops. Our new price projections for these indices suggest they are nearly there.
End of Update ————–