6/20/2024 – A mixed day with the Dow Jones up 299 points (+0.77%) and the Nasdaq down 140 points (-0.79%)
The only question we have today is whether or not we have seen the top on the SPX/NDX.
The answer is…….perhaps, but it is too soon to tell. First, let’s review.
We are currently sitting on top of a June 17th (+/- 2 trading days) TIME turning point. The SPX just touched at the edge of its proposed completion point of 5,600 (+/- 100 points). And while the Nasdaq did not reach its range of 18,250 (+/- 50 points), today’s top definitely comes within the margin of error.
In other words, if the market begins to correct and yield technical confirmations, we would have to assume the top is indeed in. As of today, we don’t have any such confirmations. We have to let the market develop over the next few days in order to ascertain any such conclusion.
Otherwise, let’s review.
To summarize the entire affair, this is turning into a complex market top formation. And while the Dow has topped perfectly in April-May, the NDX/SPX are still looking for their respective tops. We are nearly there.
Once again, in our prior weekly update we theorized that if the NDX/SPX were to push 2% higher during the week of June 10th, they would shift gears into a slightly higher high as their completion points. At the same time, that would not necessarily mean the Dow would see a higher high as its April 1st and May 21st hits were perfect.
I believe we are dealing with this precise scenario.
Luckily, we have exact projections for both. Our calculations show the Nasdaq has a clear target at 18,250 (+/- 50 points) while the SPX has a bit more variable target at 5,600 (+/- 100 points). Both indices are now very close to their respective completion points.
The question is, when?
The next TIME turning point of interest arrives on June 17th (+/- 2 trading days). At appears, at least for the time being, the market might line up into this point. Having said that, if the indices correct over the next few days, avoiding this TIME/PRICE juncture, the next point will arrive in July. And if the latter is the case, we are in for a bit more of this mind numbing trading range – at least on the Dow/NYA/RUT.
This week is important in terms of looking for any signs of the SPX/NDX top. As soon as the NDX/SPX complete their bullish patterns the market should reverse into a severe bear. With the Dow confirming first by breaking below April lows.
In summary, the market is putting in a complex top. While the Dow has achieved a perfect hit on its Time/Price projection, the NDX/SPX are still looking for their respective tops. Our new price projections for these indices suggest they are nearly there.
End of Update ————–