6/4/2024 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 140 points (+0.36%) and the Nasdaq up 28 points (+0.17%)
Today’s market action and continuation of this trading range suggests the market is yet to close recent down gaps we have been discussing over the past few trading days. With that in mind, all major indices are nearly there and tomorrow should do the trick. Once this structural issue is resolved, we expect the market to reverse and accelerate lower again.
No other changes at this time to our overall forecast.
Once again, thus far, we had a nearly ideal/perfect resolution on the Dow Jones to what we have been discussion over the past few weeks. We had a perfect hit on May 17th (+/- 2 trading days) TIME turning point for this bounce and while the Dow pushed slightly above April 1st top, it was basically a perfect double top formation. Actually, the Dow Futures never pushed above April 1st high.
The Nasdaq/SPX have been a bit more volatile, but their recent highs remain well within their respective margins of error.
All in all, our major top call remains very well intact. You might argue “Perfect” on the Dow Jones for the time being. Assuming the market will continue to develop as per our original forecast we should start to see a number of confirmations arrive over the next two weeks. Particularly on the NDX/SPX as they should begin to follow the Dow.
We are now seeking further confirmations that the bounce top is in. As we have mentioned earlier, May 20th top on the Dow works perfectly well and any further structurally sound sell-off going forward would confirm the same.
No other changes to our prior weekly or daily updates……
Let’s first review what had happened in March/April, where we are now and what we anticipate to happen next.
For months, and in the case of the Dow Jones, for 18 months, we have maintained the following price targets.
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- SPX: March 25th (+/- 2 trading days), PRICE Target 5,200 (+/- 100 points).
- Dow: March 25th (+/- 2 trading days), PRICE Target 40,000 (+/- 500 points)
- NDX: March 25th (+/- 2 trading days), PRICE Target 18,300 (+/- 200 points)
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On March 30th we issued the following short-term update (see last week’s update).
We believe we might see the final top on the Dow Jones in the first 60 minutes of trading on Monday (April 1st). Please check our Intraday update on Monday as we might reverse position from long to short at that juncture.
We did get a direct hit on the targets above and the market began to sell-off. Yet, as we have indicated at the time, the sell-off wasn’t structurally sound. The indices left behind a number of structural gap downs that suggested at the time we would get a bounce that would close them all.
Recently, all indices resolved their respective gaps lower and most primary indices pushed to slightly higher highs. Although, the Dow Futures remain below their April 1st high trigger.
So, what are we to make of all of the above?
Recent new all time highs on some of the indices complicate the technical picture a little bit, but not our Time/Price calculations or TIMING metrics. For the time being all indices remain at their targets and well within their respective margins of error. As a result, we have to assume this is a simple short-term double top formation.
Further, May 20th high makes sense in terms of being the top of this bounce. If the market continues a structurally sound sell-off over the next few trading days, we would begin to get confirmation that the top of this bounce is indeed in. And once that happens we simply revert back to our original forecast.
Having said that, if the market begins to push higher once again, pushing above 40,300 on the Dow, we would begin to question our original forecast. In an attempt to figure out what is actually happening and why the market is not doing what it should. Until that happens, our forecast remains fully intact.
End Of Update ——-