DXY

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) – Analytical Update
Date: March 10, 2026

Executive Overview

The U.S. Dollar Index continues to follow the long-term cyclical framework outlined in our previous analysis from September 17, 2025. At that time, our forecast indicated that the dollar was entering the final phase of a prolonged decline into a major cycle bottom scheduled for mid-2026, after which a substantial multi-year rally was expected.

Thus far, the dollar’s behavior has remained broadly consistent with that projection. The index has continued to trend lower, and while market sentiment has increasingly turned bearish—particularly given the current geopolitical environment—our analysis continues to indicate that the U.S. dollar is approaching a major cyclical bottom rather than a structural collapse.

Cycle Timing

From a timing perspective, our cycle composite suggests the primary bottom should occur around May 2026. Additional cycle cluster analysis identifies potential turning points in April and August 2026.

While the April cluster exists, current structural conditions suggest it may arrive too early. As a result, August 2026 appears increasingly plausible as the ultimate timing window for the completion of the bottoming process.

Price Targets

Price projections remain less precise due to several overlapping interference patterns in the cycle structure. At present, the dollar could potentially bottom anywhere between current levels and approximately 85 on the DXY.

Our current downside reference levels are:

• Primary Target: 95 ± 1

• Secondary Target: 90 ± 1

• Extreme Downside Scenario: 85 ± 1

The dollar briefly approached the 95 level during the late-January 2026 low, but the timing component was not aligned with our cycle projections. As a result, the most likely scenario is that the dollar will decline once more and break slightly below that low, potentially forming a secondary bottom before completing the cycle.

If the index breaks decisively below 94, the next likely destination becomes the 90 region, with 85 representing the extreme downside boundary for the current cycle.

Strategic Outlook

Given the uncertainty in the precise price target, attempting to identify the exact bottom purely through price projections may be difficult. Instead, a technical confirmation approach is recommended for those seeking long exposure to the U.S. dollar once the bottoming process is complete.

Once the major cycle bottom is established, our work anticipates a powerful multi-year rally in the dollar.

Conclusion

Despite widespread bearish sentiment and the current geopolitical backdrop, our analysis indicates that the U.S. dollar is nearing the end of its cyclical decline. The index is expected to form a major cycle bottom sometime between May and August 2026, most likely after one additional move lower toward the 94–90 range, with 85 representing the extreme downside boundary.

Following this bottom, the U.S. dollar is projected to advance significantly into a major cycle top around 2028–2029, potentially reaching levels near or above 120 on the DXY, marking a powerful reversal from current expectations.

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) – Analytical Report

Date: September 17, 2025

Prior Forecast Review

In earlier updates, we identified the risk of a mid-cycle top in early 2025. At that time, confirmation was lacking. With recent developments, it is now confirmed that the U.S. Dollar Index did indeed peaked in January 2025 at ~110.

Current Outlook

• The index has since broken below the 100 threshold, confirming that DXY is declining into its mid-cycle bottom, scheduled for May 2026.

• Primary Bottom Target: ~85 (±2).

• Secondary Target: If the index breaks below ~83, a deeper low near 77 (±3) becomes likely.

Long-Term Outlook

• Once the May 2026 bottom is in place, the dollar is projected to embark on a massive rally, extending into 2029 and beyond.

• This cycle should carry DXY to at least 120 or higher, marking a potential new all-time high.

Conclusion

The U.S. Dollar Index is currently in a confirmed decline phase toward its mid-cycle bottom, expected near 85 (±2) by May 2026. Following this low, the dollar is positioned for a multi-year bull cycle that could push it to 120+ by 2029, setting new highs.

The US Dollar (DXY)
Date of Update: March 26th, 2025

Our updated mathematical and timing calculations for the US Dollar suggest the following:

• The up-cycle completion point that was scheduled to arrive early 2025, has not been identified by our software yet.
• In short term, DXY has approached our elliptical curve once in July 2023 and second time in September 2024 but wasn’t able to cross it yet. At the current juncture, the elliptical curve is at 100: as soon as DXY breaks below that level, our prior forecast of 77 (+/- 3) will be inevitable.
• Our forecast of the powerful move up to at least $120 (+/- $2) by late 2032/early 2033 is still in force.

In summary, our prior top projection of January 2025 was most likely realized at $110.20 and if so, a move into a long-term bottom at $77 by May of 2026 has already started. A powerful rally into $120 by 2032 will then follow.

Date of Update: August 14th, 2024

Our updated mathematical and timing calculations for the US Dollar (DXY) suggest the following:

• The closest cycle composite top is expected in January of 2025 confirmed by a strong X-cluster arriving in February of 2025.
• Please note something of significant importance. Our prior analyses indicated that DXY would top around 120 by early 2025. Yet, today’s price of around 103 puts that into question. And while it is not impossible for DXY to stage such a powerful rally over the next 5-6 months, such a move is typically unlikely. We are considering a probability that the DXY might top out at a lower level, but we would like to give the market a bit more time here. If we are not above 110 by December, we would have to consider other tops, or rally completion points at that time.
• On the other hand, the upcoming bottom is a 15-year down cycle composite hitting multiple important bottoms as 1980, 1995 and 2011. Note that after our prior analysis, the down cycle composite has been shifted to May of 2026.
• Our price calculations suggest the bottom will occur at $77 (+/- $3).
• Once the bottom is put in place, we expect a powerful move up to at least $120 (+/- $2) by the next 16-year up cycle composite expected in late 2032/early 2033.

In summary, we expect DXY to top in January of 2025 and then reach a long-term bottom at $77 around May of 2026. A powerful rally into $120 by 2032 should follow.

Date: March 25th, 2024

• As was outlined in our prior analysis, the full cycle composite top is expected in January of 2025, followed by what should be a crash into August of 2025.
• We believe the bottom that was put in place in July of 2023 has now been confirmed as it makes perfect mid-term mathematical sense. DXY is now free to initiate its rally into January of 2025 top at any time.
• Our price calculations suggest the top will occur at $120 (+/- $1).
• Once the top is put in place, we expect a powerful “fast” move down to at least $90 (+/- $1). Lower targets are also possible. After the top is confirmed, we will have more exact time and price projection for this anticipated fast move down.

The US Dollar (DXY) – Update
Date: July 26th, 2023

As unlikely as it appears right now, our overall USD forecast remains the same. Our calculations continue to suggest we will see a new all time high in DXY by January of 2025. Then, a crash.

• We should see a bottom of this most recent correction in September/October of 2023.
• Once the bottom is put in place the DXY should rally into a January of 2025 high of around 125.
• Once the above major top is put in place we expect the US Dollar to collapse in a “fast mover” fashion.

If you would like exact dates and prices for the above, please do let us know.