Analysis Summary for JP Morgan Chase & Co (JPM)
Date of Analysis: May 2nd, 2024
Time Target: A 4.5-year up composite cycle arrives on July 3rd, 2024.
Price Target: $204 (+/- $5)
Projected Move: The time cycle decomposition of JPM shows that there is going to be a top to bottom fast move approximately from early July to mid of September of 2024.
Probability of JPM top being in as of April 1st stands at 30%. This hit was definitely within the margin of error and we cannot dismiss it as a potential top. As such, this particular setup becomes a trading proposition. Going forward, if JPM begins to sell-off again and breaks below its recent low of $179, we would have to assume the top is already in and the move down has started. In that regard, it might be a good idea to consider a short position at that juncture.
Even though our long-term calculations show that the recent high for JPM makes long-term mathematical sense, in terms of TIME, JPM has enough space to put in a (slightly) higher top. We are currently looking at approximately $204 +/- $5 target. A stop loss should be set at $215.
Our calculations show that JPM may decline about 35% to $130 +/- $5. A stop loss should be placed at $120. If it breaks below the stop loss, it will definitely go as low as $75 +/- $4. As soon as the top is confirmed by our software an updated and more accurate bottom target can be calculated.
In summary, we expect JPM to move to the downside between early July of 2024 to mid-September of 2024. This anticipated move is expected to be from approximately $204 to $130 (+/- associated variance).
