MarketAxess Holdings Inc. (MKTX)
Targeting Analysis — October 7, 2025
Overview
MarketAxess Holdings (MKTX) appears to be approaching a major cyclical bottom within the defined geometric structure of its price pattern. Our previous downside target of $155 ± $10 has effectively been reached, with the stock registering a recent low at $161.61, which sits precisely within the expected range. Current indicators suggest that MKTX is either completing its bottoming process or has already done so.
Technical and Geometric Analysis
Our updated geometric composition model indicates an ideal bottom at $158 ± $3, a mere few dollars below the recent low—well within the statistical margin of error. This supports the interpretation that the bottom may already be in place.
Two significant TIME clusters are also present:
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October 2025: A near-term cycle turn currently in progress, possibly marking the final low.
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Mid-December 2025: A powerful cycle intersection that may reinforce or confirm the long-term bottoming structure.
If the October time cluster holds, MKTX is positioned for a sustained upward phase over the next several months.
Trading Scenarios
Scenario 1 – Bottom Not Yet Complete
If the market dips slightly further into the $158 ± 3 range, this should be treated as a strategic long-entry zone.
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Suggested Entry: ≈ $160
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Stop-Loss: $154
Scenario 2 – Bottom Already Established
If the recent low at $161.61 marks the final trough, a technical breakout above $190 would serve as confirmation.
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A close above this threshold would indicate that the next upward leg has begun, projecting a 100% appreciation potential over the next 3–6 months, categorizing MKTX as a “fast mover” candidate within our framework.
Conclusion
MKTX is exhibiting strong confluence between price geometry and time-cycle clusters, both supporting a significant inflection zone. Go long at $160, with a stop loss at $154. If the bottom was already put in at $161.61, we will wait for a technical setup and a break above $180-190 juncture (downsloping trendline), before considering positioning. A rather quick 100%+ increase is expected in 3-6 months after the bottom is put in place.
***8/6/2025 Update: MKTX broke below our stop loss level today at opening, invalidating the trade in the process. Upon further review our system has yielded a new target. While the rest of the forecast remains intact, our new PRICE target is located at $155 (+/- $10). With this target not being as tight as the previous benchmark, we might consider a technical entry as we get closer. A further targeting analysis will be needed as we get closer to $165.
Marketaxess Holdings (MKTX) – Targeting Analysis
Date of Analysis: June 18th, 2025
Center of gravity TIME: August 12th (+/- 2 trading days)
Center of gravity PRICE: Target $195 (+/- $5) Stop loss at $188.50
Projected Move: An increase of at least 100% (200%+ likely) within the forthcoming few months, by November of 2025, is expected.
Go long as soon as MKTX hits $195. Stop loss at $188.50. Trade might be adjusted as we get closer to the actual completion point.
Projected Move: An increase of at least 100% within the forthcoming few months, by November of 2025, is expected.
In summary, MKTX is expected to develop a bottom to top fast move from August of 2025 to November of 2025. With a price increase of at least 100%. Much higher price increase is a real possibility.
