4D Capital, L.P     

Fast Mover 67 – MRNA

Moderna Inc (MRNA)
***Update: December 1st, 2025

The bottom composite cycle is running materially late, which likewise implies a delayed upside cycle. The stock has not yet completed its decline. Current modeling shows a very wide potential downside range, but the highest-probability bottom is centered near $15 ± $2, with mathematical clustering indicating ~$16.50 around the December 15th time window (15 cycles converging).

Trading Conclusion:
Although a credible bottom is forming, the breadth of the range provides neither margin of safety nor a reliable stop-loss structure. Therefore, we recommend awaiting a confirmed technical bottom in the $15 ± $2 zone before considering a technical entry.

All longer-term upside projections remain unchanged.

Date of Analysis: June 27th, 2025

Based on our quantitative models and timing methodologies, we anticipate the following FAST MOVER developments in Moderna stock.

TIME: July 3rd, 2025 major bottom projection.
PRICE: $20 (+/- $5)
Extent Of The Move: Once the bottom is put in place MRNA is expected to surge into December of 2025 – January of 2026 TIME range. With the PRICE reaching at least $100.

Summary:  Our calculations suggest MRNA is about to bottom, in early July, then stage a powerful move higher into a major cycle top scheduled for December of 2025. A move of 300%+ is very likely. Unfortunately, our price range for anticipated bottom is not as tight as we would like it to be.

Trading: Considering the above we propose an aggressive technical entry. Once the stock begins to suggest the bottom is in, after hitting into our target area, we will introduce a technical entry point in our trading section.