4D Capital, L.P     

Fast Mover – 79 – CNC

Centene Corporation (CNC)
Fast Mover Analysis — October 22, 2025

Overview
Centene Corporation (CNC) has emerged as a newly confirmed Fast Mover within our proprietary screening framework. Although the signal appeared slightly late in the cycle, the August 2025 bottom has now been validated both in time and price, marking a perfect mathematical hit within our model’s structure. The setup now presents a high-probability, short- to medium-term opportunity as CNC advances toward its next major cycle top projected for February-March of 2026.


Price Analysis

  • Confirmed Bottom: $25.00 per share (August 2025)

  • Current Price: ~$36.00 per share

  • Initial Upside Target: $70.00 per share

  • Extended Target Range: $120.00 – $220.00 (longer-term cycle projection)

  • Potential Pullback Entry Zone: $30.00 ± $2.00

The stock has already appreciated substantially from its August lows, leaving a large technical gap extending up toward the $60–$70 range. The next significant move is expected to unfold following a likely corrective pullback into the low $30s, which would complete the base for the next upward acceleration and present a trading entry point.


Time Analysis

The primary cycle top is projected for February – March of 2026, with a tolerance window extending into Q2 2026 if the current advance elongates.
This provides a three- to six-month window for the completion of CNC’s “fast mover” phase — characterized by steep price acceleration and elevated momentum.


Trading Strategy

Recent decline, while not yet optimal, does open up a door for an aggressive technical entry point.

  • Go long at $40, SL to follow.
  • If the stock is able to break below $28 and then below its recent low at $25 – an analytical re-evaluation should be in order.

Conclusion

Centene (CNC) has confirmed its major bottom and entered an early-stage rally with substantial upside potential. Going forward, a push above $40 range would provide an ideal entry point ahead of a projected surge toward $70 by early 2026. Stop loss to follow.
Should CNC break decisively above that level, the next major leg could propel the stock toward triple-digit territory, establishing it as one of the strongest performers in our Fast Movers portfolio for the 2025–2026 cycle.