Gold/GC – Update
Date January 24th, 2024
We have quite an interesting update on Gold. If you recall, in our last update our calculations suggested that we would see a slightly lower low of either $1785 or 1600 on GC by December 5th, 2023. It is now evident that Gold/GC did not reach that target.
In our opinion that confirms October 2022 bottom as the actual bottom and suggests the big upside move has already started.
As was mentioned in our prior updates, Gold is sitting at a major breakout point. Particularly, GC should stage a significant rally into 2025. A couple more points of interest.
- A massive Cup and Handle pattern has developed in GC since 2011. As you know, these tend to predict a substantial directional move ahead. Most likely to the upside.
- If you recall, our calculations suggest the USD will collapse in first half of 2025.
Our additional work confirms this. Gold is sitting at a major breakout point. A break above $2,200 going forward would confirm the above forecast. Once that happens, we have two potential upside targets for first half of 2025. One located at around $2300 and the other one is at around $3000. Higher targets are possible, but GC would have to break above those levels by the end of 2024.
In summary, our mathematical and timing calculations now suggest October of 2022 low was the major low for the metal. GC will now push higher, eventually breaking above $2,200 and then running up to a new all-time high by the first half of 2025. A print of $3,000 at that juncture is likely.
Gold/GC Update
Date July 6th, 2023
Our prior analysis in October (see below) was subpar, but not necessary incorrect. If you recall we generally theorized that Gold would put in an important bottom in July of 2023 before surging to an all time high by mid 2025. At the time we thought Gold would put in a clear/simple bottom this July and then begin its advance.
Instead, we got another cycle up to test prior highs before reversing lower.
Now, our overall prior forecast remains the same. We are looking for a bottom now and then a rather quick run up into a major 2025 top. Our anticipated bottom projection time/price have been updated as well.
The biggest take away from the analysis below is that there are two price and time projections for this anticipated bottom.
- TIME: September 19th +/- or December 5th +/-
- PRICE: $1,785 or $1,600
How do we know which juncture will mark the actual bottom?
Alignment of price and time. For instance, if Price and Time do not line up around September 19th, we will know the actual bottom has shifted to December.
Either way, once the bottom is in, GOLD should stage a significant rally into 2025. A couple more points of interest.
- A massive Cup and Handle pattern has developed in GC since 2011. As you know, these tend to predict a substantial directional move ahead. Most likely to the upside.
- If you recall, our calculations suggest the USD will collapse in first half of 2025.
Both points tend to confirm our overall forecast.
Gold (GC)
Date: October 25th, 2022
Our mathematical and timing work for Gold (GC) suggests the following.
- Our timing work shows Gold will decline into about July of 2023.
- There are two possible bottom completion points. The most likely is located at $1,050 (+/- 25) and the secondary one at $1,450 (+/- 25). We will know which one it is once the TIME turning point arrives.
- Once Gold bottoms it should then rally into about January of 2025.
- Our upside target suggests Gold will see a top at around $2,500 by that juncture.
The above also makes sense in terms of our overall stock market forecast. Despite today’s elevated inflationary levels, a powerful rally in the market and rising interest rates should suck up capital away from Gold. Yet, once the deflationary spiral hits next year and they flood the market with capital again, Gold should rally.
