As our September 29th email outlined, the market would bottom on October 10th (+/- 2 trading days) at SPX (3450) +/- 25 points. You can review that report/analysis here…https://www.4-dcapital.com/october-market-bottom-projection
As you know, thus far, the market has bottomed in the first few minutes of trading on October 13th at 3,491. Not a perfect hit, but not a bad one either.
If you recall, in our prior email we complained that this powerful October/November TIME turning point is open to interpretation or is variable in its nature. Meaning, it can be interpreted as hitting on October 10th (+/- 2 trading days), as appears to be the case now, or as late as November 10th. What complicates the analysis is the fact that most indices came to their respected projected mathematical bottoms, well within their margins of error, but did not hit them perfectly.
For instance, if you recall, our target on the NDX was 10,200 (+/- 100 points) and the final bottom, thus far, has occurred at 10,440. Definitely within the margin of error, but not perfect. This can be interpreted in one of two ways. The market will cycle back one more time to deliver a more precise PRICE hit or the margin of error of less than 1% is good enough.
Allow me direct your attention to the following two Dow charts as they suggest the hit was perfect and the bottom is indeed in.
Please note, the values on the charts below are calculated in 3 Dimensional space. You can learn much more about this process and what’s involved here https://4-dcapital.com/ Please click on the image for better resolution.
The mid-term chart below shows amazing precision available with this work. Please note, according to our calculations the move between 2020 low and October 13th low is exactly equal to the 2020 collapse (red circles). Further, the move between January top to October 13th bottom is a Square Root of 5 move of the 2020-2022 rally (green circles). In other words, a perfect mathematical hit on October 13th low.
Short-term calculations below hit October 13th bottom with precision as well. Please note how accurate these calculations are. All within 0.25% margin of error. In essence, effectively allowing one to TIME this bottom within 60 minute resolution.
In conclusion, our overall body of work and mathematical calculations assign…..
- 80% probability that the bottom is indeed in as of October 13th opening. Particularly on the Dow.
- 20% probability that the market will cycle down one more time to deliver a more precise hit on the targets discussed in our previous analysis.
With the above in mind, as TIME ticks away, the case for lower lows will dissipate by November 10th (secondary cycle bottom interpretation) or if the Dow breaks above 31,100. In that case the bottom will be confirmed.
Either way, whether the bottom is in or a slightly lower low will arrive by November 10th, once the bottom is confirmed, the market should then proceed to surge to a new all time high by April of 2023 (final top). Yes, I am aware how wild this sounds, but that’s what the math and the underlying lattice composition of the market says.