***June 20th, 2024 Update: Analysis below shows that the Dow (our primary analytical index) has delivered a perfect Time/Price hit on our April 1st and May 20th targets. Yet, the NDX/SPX have shifted to their next point of force. This constitutes a complex market top formation and something we have been discussing in great detail on the daily basis. Please review our daily updates for more information.
This E-Mail Was First Sent Out On April 11th. March 30th final projection/call described below can be verified through various mean if need be – just let me know.
YES. Our long-term and short-term calculations lined up on April 1st – first 60 minutes of trading – for a major bull market top. Well, this e-mail will either make me look like an absolute genius or a fool. Perhaps both and perhaps within days. But as to the latter, in terms of trading, our margin of error or our stop loss is less than 1% from this April 1st top call. And that’s after calling the exact bottom in October of 2022. That is to suggest, if we are spectacularly wrong and this is not THE top, our loss will be tiny. And if we are right, of course, our gains will be quite significant.
If you would recall, for weeks we have been talking about an upcoming market top. We believe it is here. To be exact……
For months, and in the case of the Dow Jones, for 18 months, we have maintained the following price targets. Those who have access to this research can attest to that.
- SPX: March 25th (+/- 2 trading days), PRICE Target 5,200 (+/- 100 points).
- Dow: March 25th (+/- 2 trading days), PRICE Target 40,000 (+/- 500 points)
- NDX: March 25th (+/- 2 trading days), PRICE Target 18,300 (+/- 200 points)
And while the Dow delivered a perfect long-term hit on these Price/Time calculations on March 21st at 39,889, our short-term calculations didn’t line up and suggested the top would arrive around April 1st. So much so that on Saturday, March 30th, we have issued the following call…….
We believe we might see the final top on the Dow Jones in the first 60 minutes of trading on Monday (April 1st). Please check our Intraday update on Monday as we might reverse position from long to short at that juncture.
Thus far, this has been a perfect call that scares even me. And while the Dow did not put in a new all time high, the Dow Futures DID in the pre-market on April 1st. The SPX missed an all time high by a fraction of a point.
Now, assuming this top holds as our work suggests, and as we have been saying, the next move is a severe bear market. Please let us know if you would be interested in learning how long this bear will last and how deep it will go.
Let me show you how we can calculate such moves with ease. If you would recall, since about August of 2022 we have maintained one boring forecast. The Dow would bottom out around October 10th, 2022 (+/-2 trading days) and then proceed to surge to an all-time high or above January of 2022 top. At the time we said the Dow would see about 40K before it is all said and done. Please take a look at the following chart.
Once again, the calculations you see above are multi-dimensional. I won’t get into it unless you want to discuss it as we are trying to minimize the amount of our work out there.
Please pay particular attention to the red values. When calculated in 3D space, they are equal. So, 2000 collapse was 11,356, 2020 bottom to 2022 bottom was 11,259 and 2022 bottom to March’s top is 11,469. Less than 1% variance. Then, we have a very long-term hit of 21,550 = 22,640. This associated variance has to do with the growth of the overall market. The stock market is a natural life growth system that follows natural laws. The 4,646 is a square root of 3 of 8,015 (derivative value). In other words, thus far, the market has delivered a perfect mathematical hit on our projected top. That is one of the reasons we can come and claim, as we have done prior to this top, that the market is yet to reach its top. And this is just a tiny sample of our calculations. There are many more, including our short-term calculations, that confirm the same and allow us to time the top within 60 minute variance as was shown above.
With the above in mind, I have a feeling very few people will pay any attention to this call. Just as most people ignored our 2022 bottom call. Yet, we are facing a very dangerous situation heading forward.
Other Things:
1. MegaCap Stocks: We just updated our time/price analysis for Google and VIX. Google will exibit behavior of a fast mover later this year. In terms of VIX, it does show when the bear market acceleration down takes place. This info is available to interested parties.
2. Fast Movers: We have three new fast movers in our pipeline: COO, EW and HII. They are scheduled to make 50%+ moves in under 12 months. Exact time/price trading parameters are available. This info is available to interested parties.
How do you calculate the above?
It is rather complicated, but we believe our timing/mathematical work is nearly identical to what Jim Simons has done at Renaissance Technologies. You can learn much more about this process and what’s involved here https://4-dcapital.com/
What is your performance or track record?
As of December 31st, 2023 our Time/Price calls have been quite accurate. Percentage accuracy 88%. Average position performance since October 2022 bottom +65.89%. Average MegaCap hit Monthly return 6%. Average Fast Mover return 10% (in 60 days ***new).
Why are you sending me this?
We are mostly a research outfit at this time and are unable to take advantage of the information above in full. As such, we are looking for bigger funds who have the capacity to do so. Not only that, funds who have the ability to take advantage of the rest of our work (short-term time/price projections, identification of fast moving equities, timing, etc….). Further, we have an ongoing AI project being built on top of our mathematical/timing work that can be a huge winner for associated funds (from multiple angles). Let me know if any of this is of interest and I will send you more info.
Best regards,
Alex Dvorkin – Managing Partner
4D Capital, LP