4D Capital, L.P     

SE-2-WBD

Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) 
Date of Analysis: June 6, 2025

Based on our proprietary quantitative models and advanced timing methodologies, Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) appears to be approaching a significant long-term bottom—potentially laying the foundation for a substantial upward move.

Time Forecast:

The primary long-term cycle is projected to arrive around July 15, 2025, with the margin of error extending into September. A more prominent multi-cycle convergence is anticipated in early October, which could mark the definitive low for the stock.

Price Outlook:

Our current downside projection suggests a potential bottom near $6.50 (±$0.50).

Upside Projection:

Following the anticipated bottom, our models suggest the stock could enter a strong bullish phase lasting into at least mid-2026, with a potential target as high as $50.


Key Considerations:

  1. Volatility Impact: Due to quite a bit of volatility in the stock over the past 5 years, our bottom projection is a bit more variable than we would typically like. The Time/Price juncture above is our best estimate, but it can vary greatly in the final analysis.

  2. Bottom Status: Although our analysis indicates the major cycle bottom is still forming, the 2024 low did fall within our acceptable price deviation range, albeit outside the ideal timing window. Current market behavior and technical structure lend some validity to the possibility that a bottom may already be in place.


Trading Parameters:

Should the stock continue to drift lower, we will monitor for confirmation of a bottom within our projected Time/Price framework. However, if WBD surpasses $11.50 on sustained volume and momentum, we will reassess the likelihood that the bottom has already been set. In such a case, a technical entry may be considered.