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Weekly Stock Market Update & Forecast: August 10th, 2024
A mixed week with the Dow Jones down 240 points (-0.60%) and the Nasdaq down 301 points (-1.79%)
This was an interesting week.
We started the week off with a massive gap down and a lot of fear in the market. We ended it just about where we started with some major indices like the NDX/SPX closing their respective gaps.
This is the issue with these major 3-4 gap downs right off of what could be a major market top. Typically, not always, but typically we would like to see a structurally sound decline off of a major top to signal the bear is starting.
In other words, as we have been saying, the market is still signaling that it will cycle up one more time, most likely into October, to resolve these issues and to put in a slightly higher high.
Since the market ended where it started for the week, our prior weekly forecast and associated 80/20% remain essentially the same.
With one slight adjustment.
Monday’s low on the Dow Jones slammed right into our previously discussed PRICE target of 38,500. A good hit, but we did not have a good TIME turning point associated with it. After recalculating our AI (just coming online now) is suggesting the Dow will hit 37,000 by our August 23rd +/- TIME juncture. Both PRICE points are good. As a result, we have concluded the Dow can hit either one towards the end of August. It should become clearer as we get closer.
No other changes. Please review last week’s update below if need be. Thank you.