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Weekly stock Market Update & Forecast: July 13th, 2024
A positive week with the Dow Jones up 625 points (+1.58%) and the Nasdaq up 46 points (+0.25%)
As the Brits would say, it’s a bloody mess.
It would have been a lot easier if we did not see a new all-time high on the Dow, but we now have to deal with that reality.
Let’s start with good news. Well, at least if we consider our overall long-term forecast. The Dow jumped right into its next mathematical point of force that could have been triggered at Friday’s high. It was definitely with its margin of error. Unfortunately, this point has a bit of variance associated with it as opposed to our April 1st/May 21st junctures. Although, this point can be viewed in light of a simple triple top formation.
This point on the Dow is a bit wider at 40,500 (+/- 500 points). July 19th (+/- 2 trading days) remains the projected TIME juncture.
In essence, this is the same point we are witnessing on the SPX and it lines up with the points we have been discussing on the NDX/SPX over the past few weeks.
Further, it is unclear if we have seen the top on the Dow on Friday, just as we could have seen the tops on the NDX/SPX on Thursday. Once again, everything is within the margin of error for these indices. It is a bit messy, but unfortunately that is what we have to deal with here.
Here is how to approach this.
If we begin to see a structurally sound sell-off of 2%+ going forward, we would have to conclude the tops are in and the market is beginning its move down. In that case, we will seek out good entry points.
If, however, the market lingers at these levels or pushes higher, we would have to conclude the market is looking for a more direct hit on the ranges we have discussed. That means SPX at around 5700, NDX at 21,150 and probably close to 41,000 on the Dow.
We are currently running short-term calculations on the Dow to ascertain exactly when this top will arrive. We will make this info available over the next few trading days.
Finally, as a result, we are forced to adjust our stop loss on the Dow to 41,150 at this time as we continue to maintain our 100% short position established at prior highs.
In summary, the market is putting in a complex top. Now all indices are looking for their respective tops. Our new price projections for these indices suggest they are nearly there and we are now on the lookout for a structurally sound sell-off that would confirm that the top is indeed in. Once the tops are in the market will begin a severe bear move.
End of Update ————–