Weekly Stock Market Update & Forecast: March 23rd, 2024
A positive week with the Dow Jones up 761 points (+1.96%) and the Nasdaq up 455 points (+2.84%)
We believe this was an incredibly important week for the market as all of our previously discussed targets have been reached. Particularly, we have been discussing the following price targets for months, in case of the Dow for 18 months.
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- SPX: March 25th (+/- 2 trading days), PRICE Target 5,200 (+/- 100 points).
- Dow: March 25th (+/- 2 trading days), PRICE Target 40,000 (+/- 500 points)
- NDX: March 25th (+/- 2 trading days), PRICE Target 18,300 (+/- 200 points)
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Thursday’s top hit at 39,889 on the Dow could/should be considered as a perfect long-term mathematical hit . All other primary indices confirm as well.
With that in mind, only one component is missing from what would otherwise be a perfect hit. Our short-term work. Our short-term calculations suggest the market hasn’t completed its top formation just yet and will do so later next week. In particular, either on Thursday or Friday of next week. March 28th-29th.
Having said that, we stated the following on Friday morning.
“We must be very vigilant here while we wait for our short-term calculations to hit next week. If the Dow has a 300+ points decline at any point now, followed by a technical confirmation, we would have to assume that the top is in and we will reverse position then. If, however, the market maintains today’s levels while pushing higher, we have to assume we will see the final top next week or as per our short-term calculations.”
The statement above applies and has been somewhat triggered by Friday’s sell-off. Once again, we should be very vigilant here as market pushes into next week. When we get a short-term bounce next week, and if that bounce fails to reach a new all time high by Thursday/Friday, we would have to assume the top is in. Particularly if the bounce fails below recent short-term lows. We will narrate this in our trading advice throughout next week.
In summary, ALL longer-term TIME/PRICE targets for the overall market have been satisfied. Yet, short-term calculations, which are typically more prone to error, suggest the market hasn’t topped just yet and will do so towards the end of next week. Having said that, if signs of a short-term breakdown occur over the next few trading days, we would have to dismiss our short-term calculations and assume the top is indeed in. Please stay tuned.
And once the said top is put in place, the market should shift its gears into a severe bear. We need to re-calculate our bottom projections again, but if I recall correctly, a re-test of 2020 bottom is probable. We can wait for this until the market confirms the top.
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