Updated Every Saturday by 8pm PST
Weekly Stock Market Update & Forecast: March 29th, 2024
A mixed week with the Dow Jones up 332 points (+0.84%) and the Nasdaq down 49 points (-0.29%)
We believe we might see the final top on the Dow Jones in the first 60 minutes of trading on Monday. Please check our Intraday update on Monday as we might reverse position from long to short at that juncture.
Otherwise, no changes to what we have been discussing throughout the week. Particularly, in regards to a slight divergence between our long-term and short-term calculations.
This week’s market action was ideal and we are working under the presumption that the Dow will indeed put in a slightly higher high over the next few trading days to satisfy short-term calculations.
Once again, here is the setup we are looking at. Thus far, our long-term calculations delivered a perfect hit on our Dow time/price top projection on March 21st at 39,889. With that in mind, our short-term calculations at the time suggested the final top would arrive around April 1st.
In that sense this week’s market action was ideal. With the Dow being just a few points short of March 21st high and with our short-term and long-term calculations lining up for morning of April 1st, we believe we will see our final top there.
If, however, the market doesn’t reach new all time highs and begins to sell-off, it would suggest that longer-term calculation as of March 21st were triggered and the top is in. In that case we will reverse into a short position once the Dow breaks below Tuesday’s low.
Just as a reminder, we have been discussing the following price targets for months, in case of the Dow for 18 months.
- SPX: March 25th (+/- 2 trading days), PRICE Target 5,200 (+/- 100 points).
- Dow: March 25th (+/- 2 trading days), PRICE Target 40,000 (+/- 500 points)
- NDX: March 25th (+/- 2 trading days), PRICE Target 18,300 (+/- 200 points)
Last Thursday’s top hit at 39,889 on the Dow could/should be considered as a perfect long-term mathematical hit . All other primary indices confirm as well.
In summary, ALL longer-term TIME/PRICE targets for the overall market have been satisfied. Yet, short-term calculations, which are typically more prone to error, suggest the market hasn’t topped just yet and will do so around April 1st. Having said that, if signs of a short-term breakdown occur over the next few trading days, we would have to dismiss our short-term calculations and assume the top is indeed in. Please stay tuned for trading guidance in our Intraday section.
End Of Update ———–