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Weekly Stock Market Update & Forecast: May 25th, 2024
A mixed week with the Dow Jones down 934 points (-2.33%) and the Nasdaq up 235 points (+1.40%)
I am building this update on top of our prior weekly update. Please review it below as you finish this one.
Thus far, we had a nearly ideal/perfect resolution on the Dow Jones to what we have been discussion over the past few weeks. We had a perfect hit on May 17th (+/- 2 trading days) TIME turning point for this bounce and while the Dow pushed slightly above April 1st top, it was basically a perfect double top formation. Actually, the Dow Futures never pushed above April 1st high.
The Nasdaq/SPX have been a bit more volatile, but their recent highs remain well within their respective margins of error.
All in all, our major top call remains very well intact. You might argue “Perfect” on the Dow Jones for the time being. Assuming the market will continue to develop as per our original forecast we should start to see a number of confirmations arrive over the next two weeks. Particularly on the NDX/SPX as they should begin to follow the Dow.
One word of caution. There is a real possibility our anticipated decline might turn into a mini crash. I just published Is Something Bad About To Happen? on the main blog.
In short, this a real concern for me. For the first time I am seeing real anger from Russia’s state controlled media in their calls for a big response if long range US Weapons are used to strike Russia. Look out for this event. If occurs, I believe Russia will retaliate in a major-major way. Then, all bets are off.
This would also be in line with our Natural Gas, Gold, Oil and some of the other commodities forecasts. In other words, if the US strikes Russia, we might be 2-48 hours from a major response and subsequent moves in the market. A “Black Swan” if you will.
The conflict portion is not necessarily a forecast, but something to keep an eye on. I do hope nothing happens, but I am very worried due to the warnings and language coming out of Russia. Call it a gut feeling…..
No other changes to last week’s forecast. Please review it below…..